Author: Dean Paxton

  • The Politicization Of All Things

    The Politicization Of All Things

    “Everything is all politics all the time and always will be from now on”

    Prelude: The Good Old Daze

    Our ancestors, a term I’ve been using quite a lot and perhaps overusing, would go about their daily lives with the provisions, “Never discuss politics” and “Never discuss religion,” or some combination of the two concepts.

    These operating models were deployed at work, social, and pseudo-social gatherings. Sometimes, they were even operated within family units. For example, I nearly never heard the political beliefs of anyone born prior to 1930. Perhaps people might make comment on current political events, they may even lean towards a barely perceptible editorial comment, but the display of opinion lacked real substance. Largely, people (in my life) only commented with a form of mild displeasure and mostly nonverbally, such as a “sigh” or, a “tsk.” This was in the face of major political and sociopolitical change and events. Events such as the emergence of counter cultures, equal rights movements, multiple assassinations, and even the resignation of a sitting U.S. president, not even those massive changes inspired them to create hills to die on. Unlike today, where we are encouraged to create them constantly.

    In fact, the people from the generation born before 1910, never spoke of political things at all. They did not discuss current politics, they never talked about elections, and they never discussed any candidate they supported, or mentioned who they voted for. In fact, asking them for whom they voted was taken as an insult. If you asked, they would clearly and abruptly state that it was none of your business.

    Note: this is merely a personal observation and not meant to taken as a standard experience template, or a unified definition of historical record. There will be a lot more of that personal inference ahead.

    The reason for this was fairly transparent and simple:

    • Politics talk leads to arguments.
    • Arguments lead to ill will.
    • Ill will is bad for business.

    In fact, they believed “why risk even tipping one’s hand towards a particular political polarity or other?” Odds are, considering a person’s given family origins, professional trajectory, and geographical sphere, it was fairly simple and safe to make assumptions and predictions about an individual’s political characteristics and simply carry on without any sort discussion at all.

    They truly lived by the motto “the less said, the better.” I saw it firsthand for the first 25-30 years of my everyday waking life.

    That all having been said, I do not idealize any of this, or see any of this as a good thing. In fact, the insular nature of sociopolitical conditions that I mentioned above significantly contributed to discrimination, fostered a lack of education, diminished political awareness, and helped to enable what was a fundamentally fetid and corrupt political system. A system by which enacted the “work of the people” quite literally for only a certian economic and racial class. Of which belonged only upper middle class (and higher) property owning white males. Everyone else got the remains of the spoils, if they were fortunate. So there will be no call-to-action from me to “return to the good old timey daze,” nor will I invite us all to pine for a bygone age when “things were better and simpler.”

    POaaS – Political Opinion As A Service

    Things began to shift and really not very subtly. After WWII, news publishers learned quickly that by giving politics, editorial opinion, and by reporting on current political events, people paid attention. People paying attention to their content was at the core of their business model. A prime directive to be successful, in fact.

    As people responded, read, watched, and listened to political news mediums, these news mediums responded in an escalating manner accordingly. They reported more frequently and upon a wider array of issues. But, the key concept is that they were primarily reporting in a one-to-many form. A “read-only” mode of one-way communications; news and media generated content and we consumed it. This seems normal, especially for the years I’m considering here, 1938 until about 1995.

    By 1995 (and really earlier) came about the advent of the common person publishing words upon commonly available platforms. News groups, bulletin boards, and directly to the web through the form of weblogs. All of which offered opinion platforms with the ability to have dialog in a two-way format. One could publish a statement, opinion, or belief and then others could comment, and so forth. This is what is known as a “conversation.” Conversations were happening all over the place, especially after 9/11. For the first time, on a large scale, news and politics began to be a two-way form of communication; now we’re no longer one-to-many on a one-way channel, we’ve migrated to many-to-many upon multiple two-way channels.

    Prior to 1995, most people relied on real world conversations, letters to the editor, or perhaps to a smaller extent, called into radio programs where the host held conversation. In other words, the system, by design, kept people quiet… literally.

    The dawn of twitter and facebook ushered in an broader era of push button, nearly automatic, and simple publication and conversation about all things, particularly political events, political behaviors, and the utterances of public political figures. This enabled groups to form, theories to take hold, and fostered considerable global momentum as more users entered these platforms. By “ushered in” I should really say that they kicked down the social dams and we were quite literally overwhelmed with the availability of opinion. In fact, they provided opinion as a service.

    By 2015 (some may say earlier) the dynamic began to change. Twitter, based on my limited observations, held steady with the daily suffering of argument, and for the most part remains the same today, save for a few editorial controls and one missing former US president (I might need to edit this soon). Facebook however, has made several monumental changes to the way they presented information to us, how we interacted with one another, and helped us create reality distortion fields around ourselves. They fully migrated towards “Political Opinion As A Service” and promptly monetized it.

    At that time, there were very few controls present. People regularly engaged in racist, terrifyingly abusive, and insanely toxic behaviors. There was bullying, racism, and all of the inglorious facets of human communication scraped from the bowels of the most base human mental states and it cascaded across our daily lives like a massive, overwhelming, and uncontrollable tsunami. Which primarily persists to this day.

    We became so accustomed to adversarial dialog, that we absolutely began to pick hills to die on. They can range from personal choices, affiliations to things, and perhaps by merely stating that “I like chocolate ice cream,” we would expect and be provided with a fretful argument to the death. Again, this condition is also largely still the same today.

    Many people operate in much the same manner as people who have experienced emotional and physical trauma. They are quick to flare into anger, they make negative assumptions automatically, they assume the worst at all times and it informs their interactions with one another to this day.

    Everything Is Politics

    Since 2015, we were conditioned to engage with others in an adversarial manner. Facebook reshuffled the deck in real-time in order to show to us the posts and comments on posts, from individuals and groups, that would more than likely generate engagement from us, and we all literally fell for that deception hook, line, and sinker.

    Today, there is no personal opinion left. They are all presented, discussed, and disposed of as a political polarity. Everything, even the most mundane thing, is now a political position that can trigger hostile engagement, enable a hand-wringing, clothing renting, battle to the bitter end argument. We’ve ended relationships, friendships, and abandoned family members as a result.

    Everything, every single position, on every topic signals an indication as to the extent of an individual’s virtue, value, and measure. Should disagreement happen, it is taken as a personal attack and we fight on, incessantly and nearly without end.

    This is not to say that agreement is a condition that is of primary importance. I do not posit that, “if we could all see one another’s views, seek common ground, and strive for understanding, we’d all be better.” In fact, disagreement is useful, helpful, and is essential to normal human communication. But, many of us have forgotten how to do it.

    The trouble is, and social media exploits this extensively, all opinions are not in fact equal. We may be equally important as human individuals, but our thoughts are not always equally important.

    Social media relegates all opinions as not only equal, but equally available in the same format, in the manner in which they choose to represent it. They represent it in the way in which benefits themselves. This deceives us into believing that we’re seeing an accurate snapshot of reality, and validates our reality distortions, pretty much on a second to second basis. That part has not, you guessed it, changed either.

    What has changed is, due to foul, repugnant, and hateful language from one group, or another, if you post “I hate my car,” you stand a very good chance of becoming silenced, by an automated process that lacks context (more on that later) even if only temporarily.

    So let’s think about that for a moment. A group of basically terrible people, sent Zuckerberg before congress, so facebook responded by automating the enforcement of “community standards” and each group who falls victim to automation moderation, blames the other group for that revolting development in our social communications model.

    Meanwhile facebook still happily feeds you content that is specifically ordered to provoke you to engage for as long and as often as possible.

    The worst part: We all know this as a universal and essential truth and we do it anyway. Again, and again.

    This is an important hallmark of an abusive relationship.

    The Future

    I’m not here to provide any sort of alternative. I’m not advocating any action beyond context awareness. Contextual awareness is critical for our experience, our own betterment, and provides us with a pathway to a non-destructive relationship with one another.

    As well, the problem did not begin with facebook, nor twitter, nor did it even begin with each one of us. Therefore, it stands to reason, that no action we take as individuals, or collectively will staunch the black stench of consternation that is political dialog today, in the most predominant and prevalent form it takes today, social media.

    In fact, if we were to come to some magical consensus and thwart the advertising machines that enable our constant state of argument, it still will not change the nature of these publicly traded companies whom are duty bound to return shareholder value.

    The very best we can hope for, at this point, is that some newer and more insipidly subtle form of exchange becomes predominant in our everyday lives. This is inevitable and inescapable.

    I wish that I could say that I have a magical solution in hand, but I do not. There are alternatives, of course, but they are focused upon special and niche interest groups, not very interesting to most of us. There is the alternative to “unplug” and detach from social media, for many that’s a viable and highly functional option.

    But, they are building the next platform aren’t they. See you on the metaverse?

    Keep your eyes peeled.

    Header Photo: by Nsey Benajah on Unsplash

  • Windows 11 – First Impressions

    Windows 11 – First Impressions

    Windows 11

    So, I’m a bit late to the game of Windows Insider builds for Windows 11. It seems that they’ve been available since June 2021. I’ve been preoccupied with other matters lately. Now I’m catching up:

    My 2nd run with Win11

    I missed the leak of the .iso that seemingly set the Windows tech media on notice. Not that I would have installed an .iso from a random website on my primary PC, but I do usually keep up with these things.

    Windows 11 will be, at the minimum, the 21st edition of Windows that I’ve used personally and professionally. Like many others, my love-hate relationship with Microsoft goes back to Windows origins. For the large part of my everyday computing, I now use some form of Windows, despite many years of struggling to maintain a Linux, or UNIX-based daily driver.

    At first glance, it might seem that not a lot has changed. One might even decide that, beyond it’s Mac-like centered Start button, nothing is really all that different. For most users, that will be the case.

    What’s Really Different About It?

    Internet Explorer

    One of the first things that I noticed was the removal of Internet Explorer. This could be of concern for companies that still need to support clients using enterprise web-based applications that simply will not work on modern and contemporary browsers. Though it doesn’t seem as though IE has much of a market share, there are quite a few people and IT orgs that still use it. Internet Explorer has an end-of-life-support date scheduled for June of 2022, so it may not seem as if it were a large problem for most, but it will become a very large problem for many IT organizations, very soon. There is a considerable amount of “technical debt” to be reconciled, not just on the front end, but on the core back end of these applications as well.

    Microsoft Teams

    Microsoft Teams is now part of the Windows 11 UI. Skype and Skype For Business are nowhere to be found. It seems inevitable as Teams is subsuming nearly all business support applications such as Yammer, the traditional Sharepoint UI, and MS Classrooms. We’ve seen the user counts grow from 13m in 2017, to 150m today. I see a future where Teams is the OS for enterprise devices.

    Microsoft Account

    While, it’s not impossible to run a Windows PC without a Microsoft account, it’s not easy either. Windows 11 makes it even more difficult to operate a computer without one. A very large part of Win11 features will not be available without one and it is not easy to obtain a copy without one either. This has been a major privacy concern for quite a few people since Windows 8. It seems inevitable that one will not be able to use Windows at all, without one.

    Windows 11 Interface

    The UI elements are another step towards improving ease of use characteristics, readability, and standardization of UI functions. For me, these are welcomed changes. Fonts are clearer, better spaced, and there is more uniformity throughout. These are very, very subtle changes, but noticeable to me. Round cornered windows (though not completely universal), modern icons (again not universal), and the Start button has essentially become a launcher, not particularly a applications list as it has been for the better part of 25 years.

    Overall Look and Feel

    There are quite a lot of changes that are universal throughout. For most right-click events, the menu is stark and simple and all of the dozens of right-click functions that were accumulating are buried under “Show More Options.” There is considerable use of transparent items, rounding, and window tiling (snap layouts) that make it seem more modern, polished, and generally better.

    File Explorer

    At first glance, again… it will seem as if not a lot has changed with File Explorer. File Manager, Windows Explorer, or File Explorer has been around since at least 1990 and it’s core functionality remains largely the same. Essentially, a user interface that provides a metaphorical way in which to interact with files, subsystems, connected devices, and cloud storage schemes. But, we still spend an enormous amount of time in it. For many, it’s still the way in which we interact with our content. So for those, like me, even the smallest changes have considerable impact. Windows 11 File Explorer, in my opinion, is much better. It’s more readable, more configurable, and while it may appear simpler, it is more powerful. Newer icons, ribbons, and right-click menus are present.

    There are some UI quirks that will likely be worked out, hopefully. For example, folder previews seem gone and are now merely indicate, if files exist in a folder and not very well. There’s now only a tiny white strip to indicate if a folder contains files, or not.

    Windows Subsystem for Android

    Though not in the initial preview releases, the Windows Subsystem for Android is reportedly able to allow Windows 11 users the ability to install and run Android applications, from Google Play, or the Amazon app store (perhaps even at the .apk level as well). It seems to have shown up in the Windows App Store, but apparently it does not function. It currently is not in the Windows Insider preview builds.

    Great, but is it any good?

    It does feel a bit strange having a centered taskbar. 25 years of muscle memory has had most of us instinctively reaching for the lower left part of the screen. To me, it was not, nor is it a huge paradigm shift. I was used to it very quickly, as in just a few minutes quickly. I have not used the “auto hide the task bar” function in many years and I’ve found myself trying it on again.

    It’s smoother, faster, more readable, font sizing and spacing is finally very nice, and most of all it seems more mature… another “finally.”

    Like most Windows releases, there are good and bad ones. I think that, for me, I rather do like what I’ve seen thus far. Gone are the Windows 8.0-era metro design elements like tiles, which I feel were not good. I never used them, set them up, or integrated them into my workflow.

    I suspect that some things will change significantly when the first release is available. Windows 10 is still under long term support until 2029, so there’s not a huge hurry to rush out and try it. Unless you are an enthusiast, developer, system builder, or IT professional, there is no need outside of curiosity and a desire to be an early adopter.

    How To Get It?

    If you want to run Windows 11 now, there are two ways to get it, that are official, though in some cases not fully supported. Make sure that your device is robust enough to satisfy Microsoft first, however.

    1). Join the Windows Insider program:

    Within Windows 10, under the “Update” section of your PC, you can join the Windows Insider program and opt for one of the three “bands,” or “channels” of Windows previews. “Release Preview” “Beta,” and “Dev.” The Beta and Dev channels will automatically download and install Windows 11 preview builds if your system meets the criteria. The Release Preview will only deploy Windows 10 pre-release features.

    If you navigate to the Windows Insider homepage, you will see that you can, in fact, download .iso files for clean installs.

    2). Download and clean install the .iso from elsewhere, not Microsoft (not a great idea for most use cases):

    Go to uupdump.net and find the version that fits your hardware and edition use case (ARM/Intel/AMD). Make a bootable USB key with Rufus, or similar bootmakers. And follow your system to boot from USB and install the version you selected. Likely, if you know how to do all of that, you don’t need me to explain any of it. If you do NOT know how to do any of that, I recommend you avoid this pathway. This methodology is strictly for systems administrators, systems builders, and application developers who have a lab, spare hardware, and time to explore these builds and learn how they will affect their support, build, and development processes.

  • Carol Janice Osborn Brown Paxton Hodge Aird – September 10, 1942 – January 4, 2021

    Carol Janice Osborn Brown Paxton Hodge Aird – September 10, 1942 – January 4, 2021

    Carol Janice Osborn

    As some of you may be aware, for much of my life, I have been trying to locate my mother. Note, that I do not refer to her as a “birth mother” as I was not technically adopted by someone else, though I have had many, many honorary mothers who readily volunteered for the role and continue to manifest

    C. D. Paxton, Carol Osborne-Paxton – November 1967

    A bit of backstory

    My mother left me behind in Flint, MI in late spring of 1973. I lived with my grandmother and great-grandmother (on my father’s side) until I was just past 17 years old. I moved into my own house at that time, in 1984. I had not heard from her, seen her, or heard word of her and her whereabouts since that day.

    Carol Osborne-Paxton – December 1967

    She was often spoken of by my grandmother and great-grandmother, sometimes disparagingly. Other times sympathetically. They were judgmental people who lived in a very, very small and rarified environment. Their entire world consisted of their own limited experience, the very small group of relatives and friends they had, and little else consisted of their world view. Most importantly, they quite often, as many do, used other people’s perceived characteristics, words, and deeds to invalidate them while validating themselves. Needless to say, neither of my parents, myself, or anyone for that matter, scored well on that set of measurements.

    Carol Osborne-Paxton, Dean Paxton – December 1967

    Fast forward a bit

    Several times over the years, I made efforts to locate her. In fact, the reason I am so accessible and easily located online largely is due to her. I had always hoped she, or her potential and subsequent relatives would try and locate me. I wanted to be sure I was easy to find. For the best part of 25 years, I have used my real name and made sure that even my name resolved to a domain for ease of access. I will likely revisit that notion going forward. Regardless, despite all efforts she was a virtual ghost in nearly all systems and directories.

    Carol Osborne-Paxton – July 1967

    Her name yielded no census records, no court records, and no tangible publicly available information. Paid people search services presented only impostors and close matches to her. At one point, a friend who is a bail bondsman and private investigator, tried to locate her and found virtually nothing. He stated that without a social security number, she would likely not be found. Ironically, in all of the documents, forms, licenses, and legal material I have saved, I did have her social security number, but overlooked it many times.

    Eureka?

    Carol Osborne-Paxton – July 1967

    In 2016, I thought that I finally had some luck in finding her. It seemed that her present husband had died. Thus, his death created a record and left a tangible match for her name as “Carol Janice Aird” under her current married name. My father resolved to become involved, mostly at the request of his granddaughter, and wrote to her and her copied his letters to her husband’s named relatives at the address that we were able to determine was her likely residence. But, we received no reply.

    By this time, I’d resigned myself to leave her at peace and to stop trying to find her. Even when asked by her grandchildren. My logic was, at that time, whatever her reasons for remaining so steadfast in not contacting me, in any way, shape, or form, she stuck to them strictly and did not deviate. I’d often rationalized that it was easier to have a relationship with her than it was my father, whom I maintained a strained and sporadic relationship with for my entire life.

    Carol Osborne-Paxton, David Paxton- April 1967

    Closure

    When my father died on May 28, 2021, I was searching our email correspondence to find some potential cousins, nieces, and nephews on his father’s side of the family. Mostly to let them know he had died. He had been in contact with some of those people scattered about Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, and elsewhere. Some of the emails that we had exchanged about her resurfaced. I saw her full and newest married name and I decided to try and search for her again. This is when I discovered that after searching for nearly 40 years, largely without a trace, I have finally located my mother.

    Carol Osborne-Paxton – July 1967

    The top search result for her name was her obituary from the funeral home reads as follows:


    https://www.jewellrittman.com/obituaries/Carol-Aird/

    Carol Janice Aird, 78, of Columbus, died at 7:00am, January 4, 2021, at her residence.

    Carol was born September 10, 1942 in Washington State, the daughter of Howard Ross Osborn and Virginia Cole Osborn. She married Dennis William Aird in 2006 while living in LaPorte, Indiana. He passed away in 2014, after returning to Indiana to be with family.

    Though Carol’s early life is vague her stories would captivate anyone in the audience. She spoke of being a civilian in France and serving troops through the USO. Later in life Carol enjoyed working in sales for LeCreuset Stoneware Company. Carol was also a very talented artist. She loved animals, especially dogs and horses.

    She was preceded in death by her parents and her husband.

    No services are planned.


    Instantly, I knew that this was indeed my mother. The photo in the obituary was not only unmistakably her, it was the first time I had laid eyes on her for 48 years.

    Here’s the email that I sent to my father after he died. I realize it seems kind of odd, but it is well within the spirit of our established communications model:

  • David Paxton – June 13, 1944 – May 28, 2021

    David Paxton – June 13, 1944 – May 28, 2021

    David Paxton

    David Paxton – May 2021
    David Paxton – May 2021
    David Paxton – April 1969
    (L-R) David Paxton, Frances Paxton, Dean Paxton, Mamie Orendorf – December 1967
    David Paxton, Carol Osborne-Paxton – December 1967
    Dean Paxton, Carol Osborne-Paxton, Dean Paxton – 1967
    Carol Osborne-Paxton, David Paxton – August 1967
    David Paxton – August 1967

    My father, David Paxton, who would have wished that I posted more and would have hated this post… unexpectedly died yesterday.

    His mother was Mary Frances Paxton of Flint, MI and his father was C.D. (Dee) Paxton of Genesee, MI. They preceded him in death in 1994 and 1999 respectively. David was born in Newark, New Jersey in 1944 and lived in Flint, MI, Pittsburg, PA, Tampa, FL and traveled the world many times over as an executive for Westinghouse and later ADP. His final home was in Brandon FL, outside Tampa FL. 

    My dad was just a few days shy of his 77th birthday.

    He was just starting a new chapter of his life as he had just sold his home on Oakwood Ave, in Brandon FL and had moved into his new home just a couple of miles away in Valrico, FL. He was there for just five days and had not even fully unpacked, or stocked his kitchen yet.

    From March 2020, he was mostly shut into his old house as we all weathered the pandemic. He did receive the second dose of Moderna the day prior to his death. He was adamant about avoiding the virus until he could be immunized and saw it as a passport back to normal living. Perhaps as some of us do. He was looking forward to resuming normal activities and he was starting to feel much better as he was having some health problems within the last 3-5 years.

    He greatly anticipated being able to visit with his friends, resume his normal pattern of weekly outings, and was even looking forward to a potential trip to Michigan to visit his many grandchildren and great-grandchildren. In November, we were planning a trip to Valrico FL to visit and he was planning a holiday flight to Michigan in late 2021. 

    He was happier, more optimistic, and ready to begin a new chapter in life as change was very difficult for him to process, plan, and execute. He was doing his very best, especially with help, support, and encouragement from his many friends. 

    At the moment, we are planning the next steps and will try to determine the best way to celebrate his life. 

    He was an acutely charismatic, intelligent, and funny person. Sadly however, he thought he was a bad person and secluded himself away from everyone.

    In this is a lesson for all of us. We’re all accepted, included, and acknowledged. Anyone who says otherwise, is full of literal s**t.

    Audio above: someone, likely using a people finder directory, tried to scam my father. He did briefly fall for it, but offered his entire credit line to try and help his grandson Damian. It was easily debunked and he felt badly. But, he unquestionably volunteered to assist. Take care of your elders, they are falling victim daily to these sorts of scams.

    5-29-2021 Updates:

    I will be traveling to Valrico/Brandon within the week. We are planning my father’s life celebration for the week of June 6th, 2021. We will likely have it that Tuesday. I will post an update here and to the email list of the exact place, date, and time.

    There will also be a second memorial happening in October. Many people who knew my father are traveling and wintering in the north, or in the west. We will gather together then to be able to accommodate those traveling at the moment.

    A few people have asked me what David’s middle name was. David did not have a middle name. He went by “David,” “Dave,” and “Paxton.” To some, as a nod to his demeanor, he was also known as “Sir Paxton.”

    5-30-2021 Update:

    The woman depicted above is indeed my mother, for the couple of people that have asked. I’ll have an upcoming update about that as soon as I can.

    6-8-2021 Update:

    As promised, I’ve an update about my mother….


    If you need to reach out to Dean, this form will reach him quite quickly and directly:

    • Image Compare Test

      Image Compare Test

      Slide the little slider to compare two images.

      Just toying around with some JavaScript vs the WordPress native block.

    • The Long March To September

      The Long March To September

      The article was originally published on 3/16/21 at covidtotals.com

      It’s been quite a few months since my last coronavirus update.

      There was a previous post that was an initial first warning and forward looking view. Like those earlier editorial statements, I will be warning, or attempting to warn family and friends, who will listen, of what will come in the next 90-120 days. At the time of this writing, 5 family members have been either fully vaccinated, or have received their first dose. Which is a relief. but there are many more to go in our family, not to mention yours.

      After looking at data and studying trends in South America, the Middle East, Africa, Indochina, Oceania, Russia, India, and the US, I’ve been able to draw some correlations and conclusions. These conclusions are not what you would wish to hear, and in some cases, some of you will refuse to listen, flatly deny, and will not believe what I’m about to say. In fact, I’ve been sitting on these conclusions for likely too long, hoping to see a positive trend that could render what I’m about to say below unnecessary.

      Part of the reason you are seeing vaccination restrictions easing is a direct response to the same trends that I’ve been monitoring for the past eight weeks.  There are three very nasty SARS-COv2 strains, all of them are now among us in the US and most of the rest of the world and they are much worse than what drove our previous “waves.”  I use quotation marks there because there is hot debate about which wave we’re actually experiencing. Some will tell you that what is to come is a small fourth wave and that the last wave was actually the third wave. I believe it was only our second wave. This third wave, which is just starting as I write this, is very likely to create a very large number of cases and deaths.  Some of the variants are more anecdotally more resistant to the existing vaccinations, some seem to respond the same as previous strains. There is very little data available, especially from South America, to make predictions iron clad. This is why it is utterly and completely vital that If you have the opportunity to find a vaccination site that will accept you, take it. It does not matter the variety and there are nearly no medical reasons not to accept the first available vaccine that you can. We are literally in a race to stave off the damage of this coming third wave, if we can vaccinate enough people in time, we may have a chance. As it stands now, I don’t think that is statically, logistically, or sociologically possible. Many more people will become ill and will die.

      As we see the “older” variant case counts decreasing, we are seeing very disturbing and sharp increases in the newer and more virulent strains from South Africa, Europe, and South America. Which means, while the older European strains case counts drop and because the run rate of those variants was so high, it appears that in some places the disease is subsiding. It is not. As the more virulent strains are beginning to reach a mass that is critical enough to become the predominant strain, the case count is very rapidly rising again. Further, because of the economic impact, political impact, and the fatigue of protective restrictions, many states are now beginning the process of easing those protective measures. They are increasing the amount of people in public and private spaces, relaxing mandates, and this is contributing to the sense people have that, “this is finally starting to end.”  It is not.

      In fact, it is the worst possible time to allow more people to gather in unrestricted, with reduced mandates for safety, and relaxed personal protection measures. Since the UK variant (B.1.1.7) and the South American variant (P.1) do impact children and is generally more infectious (up to 40-60% more so). The long shot bet that governmental health executives are making, due to the literally runaway house fire nature of the containment efforts and policies in the US, is that they now have no choice but to hope that the vaccines can reach enough people to stave off the deadliest phase of this pandemic we’ve see to date. This is largely because there is nothing else that they can possibly do. I believe that is not possible and there is no contingency plan available at this time.

      I realize that some states are opening completely, the sunshine is coming, and we’ve moved our clocks forward as the days are getting longer. Soon, the grass will turn greener, trees will bud, and Brood X will emerge and raise earth to heaven in noise. It’s not been summer for nearly two years. You’ll feel like it’s over, you are already starting to feel like it’s behind us, perhaps. Your friends, neighbors, and family will feel and behave as if this is over and the worst is behind us. You’ll want to see those loved ones and friends that you’ve missed so much. You will think that those times of 5,000 individual daily deaths, 400,000 daily cases, and darkest days of this pandemic are behind us. You would be wrong. I feel that the worst of this is not behind us, rather it is directly ahead of us.

      I use a metaphor of a beach. You’re on holiday, finally and you’ve got your feet buried into the warm sand, you’re watching the sun reflect from the water onto your face, you’re enjoying your friends and family openly at long last. And I walk up to you, wearing a dark overcoat, hat, and sunglasses and point out over the water and say “Hey, there is a huge hurricane coming, it’s out there about 500 miles. You better start to make your way home, lay in supplies, batten down and take cover.” But you’ll rightfully want to smash me right in the face. Well, I’m telling you there is a hurricane, it is coming, and it’s about 250 miles away now. You had better take cover if you have not had your vaccinations. If you have been vaccinated, now is not the time to risk the 5-25 percent vulnerability you still have to the three most virulent and dangerous versions of this disease we’ve seen to date.

      I’m not in the prediction business, nor the infectious disease business, I’m not even in the data analytics business. The prediction calculator (note that I avoid the word “algorithm”) is shuttered and the code base is now carried by much smarter people than myself. In May of last year, I predicted 800,000 to 1.6 million people dead by the end of 2022, we’re at 550,000 deaths now. I got a lot wrong in my predictions last year, without a doubt. But, in general I was correct in my prediction of what the disease would behave like among us.

      Based on what we know about SARS-CoV-2, I now am of the belief that this disease will return, seasonally each year and we will have a permanent vaccine regimen that we will have to adhere to indefinitely. I do not think that vaccine, or natural herd immunity is possible with this disease. Instead we will see seasonal waves indefinitely and permanently. In other words, this will never end. Which may be the most important thing to take from all of this aside from the message to stop at nothing until you have accomplished a vaccine.

      So, with increased risk from the variations such as the South American (P.1) variant becoming a reality, there’s no other alternatives to vaccination. So, accomplish any vaccine for yourself and your loved ones at any cost. Stop at nothing until you and your loved ones are vaccinated. There is no other action beyond staying away from human beings, who spread this disease through the very air, until you can become vaccinated.  The current generations of available vaccines will protect you as will the boosters that will come. There will be more effective and available vaccines to come very shortly. Even though disparity and inequity in distribution is a very real problem both in this country and the rest of the world. In future, I will report what I find about that.

      Like last time, I’d rather be wrong and have said something publicly, than be right having said nothing.

      Also, here are some of my sources sources for further reading:

      Data Explorer

      Click “Explore the data” above for an enlarged and enhanced data view

    • Busy Work

      Busy Work

      During the pandemic I’ve continued to work the day job and I’ve launched a few new projects:

      I also continue to maintain The East Village Magazine and Pure Pro Wrestling, which we recently redesigned. I’m working on a redesign for The East Village Magazine, which is rather long overdue.

      Top Rope TV is a division of Pure Pro Wrestling that is gearing up to launch thousands of hours of video content for a subscription audience. Though it’s not nearly ready for launch, it’s online and ready for early registration.

      Pure Pro Wrestling was more than ready for a redesign as the last iteration was built on the Wix website builder and had many, many thousands of lines of theme overburden, coupled with very slow server response times, and a high monthly cost for a basic and static site. The new design is more dynamic, lighter, more device independent and allows the non-technical staff manage their own content.

      The Meridian Weekly is a woman-owned publication based in Ovid Michigan that has operated for over 30 years producing and delivering a newspaper that serves Clinton and Shiawassee counties. They really only wanted to be able to publish the .pdf version of their paper, but they are starting to publish articles and utilize social media to create new advertiser opportunities and reach beyond their physical limitations.

      So, with some of these projects launched, I’m starting to see a pathway to being able to start new projects and take on more work in my off-work hours.

    • DAY 105: “I’M SAD… FOR NOW”

      DAY 105: “I’M SAD… FOR NOW”

      This article was originally published on May 6, 2020 at covidtotals.com

      It is probably time I level with all of you about what I think will happen. After 4 months of studying data, reading countless papers, books, and watching this migrate in our global culture, a few things have occurred to me. Those of you who know me, know that I do tend to go fast and deep on these things, I certainly have here.

      Even though I post articles to the news section of my own site, I do not often read Coronavirus-related news articles. I never watch the president’s coronavirus briefings, or dwell on what his experts are communicating. I have found that whatever Trump and his “task force” have said, assume the opposite is true. This has proven to be a nearly infallible way of dealing with the president and his “task force.” They are spreading dangerous disinformation and hopefully they will all stand trial for malfeasance, or incompetence, or both. In fact, I’ve all but given up hope that any meaningful leadership will take place in its present, or future form. It will likely come from a place we cannot yet imagine.

      I believe, without hesitation, that we are facing another 18-24 months of lock down, social distancing, infection, and death. In the last 250 years, the last 10 influenza pandemics, there has been a second and third wave. Each more deadly than the last. It is not reasonable to expect anything different with Covid-19. Surely, we do not actually know what will happen, this is a coronavirus, not a flu virus. But, does behave very much like a flu it is not unreasonable to make prediction as such. We are making the same mistakes that those before us made and they too felt that restrictions, masks, and social distancing was wrong. The sooner we accept that, the easier this will be to comprehend and make allowances and adjustments for.

      There is no vaccine coming soon. Not in July, not in September, at best we may hope to expect a risky, rushed, and certainly not ubiquitously effective vaccine in 18-24 months. We have not developed a safe and effective vaccination from discovery to distribution sooner than 4 years. It’s not unreasonable to believe that one will not happen in a matter of weeks. If we are very lucky, we might see one a few months sooner, from what I’ve gathered August 2021 is a best-case-scenario at this point.

      I see that states are reopening. People are tired of being restricted, tired of navigating the world fearfully, tired of uncertainty. I can help put some of that uncertainty to rest. Nearly all, at least 80% of us reading this, will get the virus in the next 18-24 months. Of that, 80% of those will recover leaving 20% to struggle, 10% of those will be fine and recover with minor medical intervention. The remaining 10% will need hospitalization, of those 5% will need intensive care and of those, 1% to 0.5% will die. Pick your population, either 325 million in the US, or 7.7 billion in the world and the formula looks like this: (population) / 2 x .01(and .005 respectively) = total deaths. So, in the US, that is a range of 830,000 to 1,675,000 total deaths. We’ll use 50% here, which is far more conservative

      Yes, I said 800,000 to 1.6 million people dead in the US.

      It is time, beyond time, for each of us to have a personal plan in which to carry us through this situation. The federal government may be able to assist you, in a minor way, but they will not protect you and they do not have the remotest semblance of a plan. The states are competing with one another for resources and contradicting one another based on party lines, they do not have a plan. The president is encouraging unrest, taking personal advantage for himself, and misleading the world on an hourly basis, he has no plan. Your local government is unlikely to have a plan. So the plan, it’s creation, it’s execution, and it’s modification on-the-fly falls upon each of us, for each of us to own the outcome.

      My current plan is to continue to work from home, as I am fortunate to do, to do as much good work in order to distinguish myself as I possibly can, and to keep my family as far away from other people for as long as they will tolerate. I am not willing, unlike our leadership, to sacrifice anyone in my family to get back to Applebee’s for the 2 for $20 and happy hour mixed drinks. The question is, are you? I suspect not.

      I want to be perfectly clear on a couple of points:

      1). There is nothing we can do, this is inevitable. I’m not advocating tossing the masks and french kissing strangers. I’m saying there is nothing that any of us can do to stop this from happening.

      2). There must be a time to return to abnormal life. That will happen soon. Go out, get take out, get groceries, and be aware of people and protect yourself. 50/50 you’ll be fine.

      3). Nothing will return to normal. It will seem normal for a moment, but we will be clobbered again near the end of summer beginning of fall. This is far from over. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

      4). If the vaccine comes, it will happen as we hit herd immunity and the virus begins to remove itself, it will appear as though the vaccination cured us all. If we get one… Like I said, 18-24 months and 800k – 1.6m dead later.

      5). Maybe I’m wrong…. let’s hope that I am. What could be better for me to be dead wrong about this? I can think of no better outcome in the world.

      Today’s projection data:
      *Total projected cases in the US: 1,200,645
      *Total projected deaths in the US: 65,169

      Today’s actual data:
      Total cases in the US: 1,237,633
      Total deaths in the US: 69,921

      *Historical data from yesterday is incomplete and the calculations are not accurate for 5/5/20.